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Red143
84041.1
325653.9
185412.3
Blue126
839.6
666538.3
186832.5
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions115123050100150200250143126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+13
+33Teleop
+23Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousBlue +13
0Leave9
5Coral scored#5
23Coral points27
23Total auto36
TeleoperatedRed +46
16Coral scored#11
56Coral points40
4Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
24Processor points6
20Net points8
44Algae points14
100Total teleop54
Reef
8L4#7
7L3#3
2L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
30Game pieces#19
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Penalties & totalRed +17
6Foul points12
143Total score126

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3256
#17
53.90.7
53.253.9
Auto12.9
Teleop32.9
End8.1
red by 14.3
8
#21
39.60.1
39.539.6
Auto13.2
Teleop23.4
End3.1
Second
840
#3
41.10.7
40.541.2
Auto6.3
Teleop30.3
End4.6
red by 2.8
6665
#12
38.30.1
38.238.3
Auto6.2
Teleop23.8
End8.4
Third
1854
#33
12.30.8
11.612.4
Auto1.7
Teleop8.1
End2.6
blue by 20.1
1868
#18
32.50.1
32.432.5
Auto8.0
Teleop17.7
End6.7