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Red150
84669.1
304572.2
476526.5
Blue146
107260.1
264328.7
84167.4
76%Model gave it24%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions184159100150200250150146

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+14Teleop
+4Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave3
10Coral scored#8
52Coral points41
58Total auto44
Teleoperatedlevel
13Coral scored#14
48Coral points50
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#5
12Processor points6
16Net points20
28Algae points26
76Total teleop76
Reef
9L4#5
8L3#10
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#28
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +4
0Foul points0
150Total score146

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.20.4
71.971.6
Auto19.0
Teleop42.3
End11.0
red by 4.8
841
#4
67.40.1
64.964.8
Auto14.9
Teleop42.5
End10.0
Second
846
#11
69.10.4
68.868.4
Auto15.8
Teleop46.9
End6.3
red by 8.9
60.10.1
57.657.5
Auto18.1
Teleop33.5
End8.4
Third
4765
#35
26.50.4
26.225.8
Auto5.7
Teleop19.7
End1.1
blue by 2.2
2643
#27
28.70.1
26.126.1
Auto3.4
Teleop24.4
End0.9