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Red160
25479.6
713725.7
228841.3
Blue104
97237.2
541949.1
213539.5
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions100996080120140160160104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+48Teleop
+58Endgame
+56Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
0Leave0
6Coral scored#4
30Coral points19
30Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +37
26Coral scored#16
94Coral points57
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#2
12Processor points12
8Net points8
20Algae points20
114Total teleop77
Reef
8L4#6
13L3#7
8L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
36Game pieces#24
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +56
0Foul points2
160Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
254
#2
79.67.5
48.556.0
Auto19.2
Teleop49.7
End10.7
red by 30.5
5419
#15
49.10.3
41.241.6
Auto7.3
Teleop35.4
End6.4
Second
41.37.5
27.935.4
Auto5.7
Teleop33.2
End2.3
red by 1.8
39.50.6
30.130.6
Auto13.5
Teleop24.4
End1.6
Third
7137
#28
25.77.5
13.220.7
Auto5.4
Teleop19.9
End0.5
blue by 11.4
972
#21
37.20.3
22.623.0
Auto8.1
Teleop21.8
End7.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsEarned70%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsEarned86%Barge oddsMissed