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Red30
298416.1
162214.6
265811.1
Blue79
97307.0
945236.5
254345.6
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions611150501001502003079

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+47
Endgame+49
Fouls+49
AutonomousBlue +6
6Leave3
0Coral scored#2
0Coral points9
6Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +41
2Coral scored#10
8Coral points35
0Processor algae#1
0Net algae#2
0Processor points6
0Net points8
0Algae points14
8Total teleop49
Reef
1L4#4
0L3#4
1L2#2
0L1 · trough#2
2Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +49
12Foul points12
30Total score79

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2984
#10
16.12.5
19.717.2
Auto4.8
Teleop10.0
End1.4
blue by 29.4
45.61.9
45.843.9
Auto3.1
Teleop32.8
End9.7
Second
1622
#15
14.62.5
19.016.5
Auto4.9
Teleop7.2
End2.5
blue by 21.8
36.51.9
35.133.2
Auto5.8
Teleop27.2
End3.4
Third
2658
#17
11.12.5
11.79.2
Auto1.3
Teleop8.9
End0.9
red by 4.1
9730
#16
7.01.9
8.97.0
Auto1.9
Teleop4.0
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
21%Auto oddsMissed61%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsMissed73%Barge oddsMissed