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Red123
325567.8
547429.0
441946.1
Blue149
3255B42.4
97307.0
312866.0
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions156111050200250123149

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+2Teleop
Endgame+18
Fouls+26
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave9
5Coral scored#3
24Coral points14
30Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +5
15Coral scored#20
55Coral points72
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#2
12Processor points12
20Net points8
32Algae points20
87Total teleop92
Reef
8L4#6
5L3#10
4L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
27Game pieces#27
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +26
0Foul points8
123Total score149

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.80.5
68.367.8
Auto16.1
Teleop42.7
End9.0
red by 1.8
66.00.7
64.565.2
Auto12.1
Teleop41.5
End12.3
Second
46.10.5
46.646.1
Auto6.8
Teleop36.5
End2.8
red by 3.7
42.41.0
40.341.3
Auto8.3
Teleop29.9
End4.1
Third
5474
#13
29.00.5
29.529.0
Auto6.1
Teleop21.1
End1.9
red by 22.0
9730
#16
7.00.7
5.56.2
Auto1.9
Teleop4.0
End1.1