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Red158
858521.9
958432.6
228852.1
Blue134
950515.3
908465.2
414143.1
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11615150100200250158134

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+15
+2Teleop
+14Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousBlue +15
3Leave0
3Coral scored#7
16Coral points34
19Total auto34
TeleoperatedRed +17
21Coral scored#16
77Coral points56
2Processor algae#4
6Net algae#4
12Processor points24
24Net points16
36Algae points40
113Total teleop96
Reef
11L4#8
6L3#5
4L2#6
3L1 · trough#4
32Game pieces#31
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
10Foul points0
158Total score134

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2288
#11
52.11.8
49.651.5
Auto9.0
Teleop37.1
End5.9
blue by 13.1
9084
#10
65.20.5
64.163.5
Auto19.6
Teleop40.9
End4.8
Second
9584
#25
32.61.8
30.432.2
Auto8.2
Teleop16.8
End7.6
blue by 10.5
4141
#19
43.10.5
43.142.6
Auto10.8
Teleop25.4
End6.8
Third
8585
#38
21.91.8
20.121.9
Auto2.8
Teleop16.6
End2.5
red by 6.6
9505
#41
15.30.5
15.815.3
Auto4.4
Teleop11.3
End-0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed17%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned63%Barge oddsMissed