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Qual 472025 Pinnacles Regional
Red115
696219.7
527415.6
281340.9
Blue123
397017.0
576015.2
947034.5
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8772204060100120140160115123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
Teleop+26
Endgame+24
Fouls+8
AutonomousBlue +18
9Leave9
0Coral scored#4
0Coral points18
9Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +8
10Coral scored#14
36Coral points50
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#2
12Processor points18
20Net points8
32Algae points26
68Total teleop76
Reef
4L4#4
3L3#5
2L2#5
1L1 · trough#4
17Game pieces#23
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +8
32Foul points16
115Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2813
#7
40.91.2
42.9→41.7
Auto6.9
Teleop25.1
End8.9
red by 6.4
9470
#15
34.52.5
29.3→31.8
Auto11.8
Teleop22.5
End0.3
Second
6962
#32
19.71.2
17.0→15.8
Auto2.4
Teleop17.1
End0.2
red by 2.7
3970
#33
17.02.7
23.3→26.1
Auto3.4
Teleop12.6
End1.0
Third
5274
#18
15.61.2
17.5→16.2
Auto3.6
Teleop12.5
End-0.5
red by 0.4
5760
#27
15.22.7
12.1→14.8
Auto4.3
Teleop8.6
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
27%Auto oddsMissed53%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
50%Barge oddsMissed17%Barge oddsMissed