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Red104
541940.4
325727.3
696219.7
Blue152
97229.5
592410.8
448163.9
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8298050150104152

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+22
Endgame+24
Fouls+48
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave3
2Coral scored#2
9Coral points9
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +19
16Coral scored#13
57Coral points48
2Processor algae#4
3Net algae#7
12Processor points24
12Net points28
24Algae points52
81Total teleop100
Reef
9L4#4
4L3#5
2L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
23Game pieces#26
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +48
0Foul points24
104Total score152

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.42.0
38.040.0
Auto5.9
Teleop28.2
End6.3
blue by 23.5
63.92.9
56.259.1
Auto13.6
Teleop45.0
End5.2
Second
3257
#28
27.32.0
21.022.9
Auto2.7
Teleop20.0
End4.6
blue by 2.2
972
#16
29.52.9
24.727.6
Auto4.9
Teleop14.8
End9.8
Third
6962
#32
19.72.0
13.915.9
Auto2.4
Teleop17.1
End0.2
red by 8.8
5924
#26
10.82.9
6.99.7
Auto2.6
Teleop5.6
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
21%Auto oddsMissed30%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
33%Barge oddsEarned75%Barge oddsEarned