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Red124
580524.9
473855.7
347333.0
Blue24
330922.8
550022.1
741519.5
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions996705015012424

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+96Teleop
+106Endgame
+100Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave3
1Coral scored#2
7Coral points9
16Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +92
21Coral scored#1
76Coral points2
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#0
6Processor points0
12Net points0
18Algae points0
94Total teleop2
Reef
8L4#1
6L3#1
6L2#1
2L1 · trough#0
26Game pieces#3
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +100
0Foul points6
124Total score24

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.74.4
38.843.2
Auto14.7
Teleop35.7
End5.3
red by 32.8
3309
#25
22.85.0
25.520.5
Auto6.8
Teleop14.0
End2.1
Second
3473
#38
33.04.4
24.128.5
Auto3.7
Teleop26.6
End2.7
red by 11.0
5500
#19
22.15.0
18.113.1
Auto7.5
Teleop11.8
End2.7
Third
5805
#15
24.94.4
21.525.9
Auto2.6
Teleop17.9
End4.4
red by 5.5
7415
#46
19.55.0
19.614.6
Auto3.9
Teleop14.0
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsEarned49%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsEarned25%Barge oddsMissed