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Red80
407932.6
97347.1
741519.5
Blue96
499921.8
153847.3
583519.3
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions103900501502008096

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
Teleop+4
Endgame+16
Fouls+16
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave0
6Coral scored#3
31Coral points16
37Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +25
6Coral scored#14
21Coral points50
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
39Total teleop64
Reef
4L4#7
2L3#3
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#4
16Game pieces#20
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +16
0Foul points0
80Total score96

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
973
#7
47.11.0
40.639.6
Auto12.9
Teleop28.2
End6.0
blue by 0.2
1538
#10
47.32.0
43.845.8
Auto8.6
Teleop37.4
End1.3
Second
4079
#21
32.61.0
28.527.5
Auto8.8
Teleop22.0
End1.9
red by 10.9
4999
#22
21.82.0
13.815.8
Auto5.0
Teleop11.8
End4.9
Third
7415
#46
19.51.0
20.119.1
Auto3.9
Teleop14.0
End1.6
red by 0.2
5835
#13
19.32.0
20.422.4
Auto5.6
Teleop11.1
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned44%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsMissed25%Barge oddsEarned