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Red158
940854.1
300924.0
519958.4
Blue101
97347.1
302031.2
842.4
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions152136100120160180200158101

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+47Teleop
+57Endgame
+57Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave6
8Coral scored#6
41Coral points31
44Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +40
20Coral scored#10
72Coral points36
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
90Total teleop50
Reef
11L4#6
11L3#4
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
32Game pieces#19
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +57
0Foul points0
158Total score101

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.40.6
57.458.0
Auto13.2
Teleop35.4
End9.8
red by 11.3
973
#7
47.10.6
47.747.1
Auto12.9
Teleop28.2
End6.0
Second
9408
#12
54.10.7
53.153.7
Auto11.9
Teleop37.7
End4.6
red by 11.8
8
#28
42.40.6
43.042.4
Auto12.3
Teleop26.1
End4.0
Third
3009
#30
24.00.7
22.923.6
Auto4.8
Teleop13.3
End5.9
blue by 7.2
3020
#17
31.20.6
31.731.2
Auto3.2
Teleop20.2
End7.8