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Red51
551519.8
99115.6
388119.5
Blue9
265815.0
953412.8
98816.1
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6763050100150200519

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+36Teleop
+36Endgame
+42Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave3
1Coral scored#0
7Coral points0
10Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +29
6Coral scored#0
21Coral points0
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
0Processor points0
8Net points0
8Algae points0
29Total teleop0
Reef
2L4#0
3L3#0
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
9Game pieces#0
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +42
6Foul points0
51Total score9

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5515
#20
19.81.6
15.714.2
Auto6.3
Teleop12.1
End1.5
red by 3.7
988
#26
16.15.3
15.310.0
Auto4.3
Teleop9.6
End2.1
Second
3881
#39
19.51.6
23.221.6
Auto3.5
Teleop12.3
End3.7
red by 4.5
2658
#46
15.05.3
23.017.7
Auto2.4
Teleop10.2
End2.4
Third
991
#43
15.61.6
20.218.6
Auto1.8
Teleop12.5
End1.3
red by 2.9
9534
#44
12.85.3
18.012.8
Auto3.7
Teleop7.8
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
49%Auto oddsMissed37%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsEarned23%Barge oddsMissed