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Red138
325561.9
258440.1
889121.6
Blue104
676634.0
386337.7
364723.4
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions968650150138104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+26Teleop
+24Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave0
3Coral scored#2
14Coral points9
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +12
18Coral scored#13
65Coral points47
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#3
12Processor points18
12Net points12
24Algae points30
89Total teleop77
Reef
10L4#4
4L3#6
3L2#2
4L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +34
12Foul points2
138Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.93.3
35.338.6
Auto14.0
Teleop39.8
End8.1
red by 24.3
37.71.0
21.722.7
Auto4.1
Teleop29.2
End4.4
Second
40.13.3
25.829.2
Auto7.2
Teleop30.8
End2.0
red by 6.0
6766
#30
34.01.0
18.819.8
Auto6.5
Teleop27.0
End0.6
Third
8891
#25
21.63.3
18.922.2
Auto2.4
Teleop15.4
End3.8
blue by 1.8
3647
#41
23.41.0
35.036.0
Auto4.4
Teleop14.7
End4.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
47%Auto oddsEarned43%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
50%Barge oddsEarned38%Barge oddsEarned