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Red115
513727.4
254331.3
359838.3
Blue121
441458.8
665724.9
210222.2
18%Model gave it82%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions841094060100120140160115121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+8
Endgame+6
Fouls+6
AutonomousRed +4
0Leave9
3Coral scored#1
16Coral points3
16Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +12
18Coral scored#17
65Coral points61
1Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
6Processor points18
12Net points16
18Algae points34
83Total teleop95
Reef
9L4#6
5L3#6
3L2#4
4L1 · trough#2
25Game pieces#25
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +6
0Foul points0
115Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.33.2
24.627.8
Auto5.6
Teleop28.2
End4.5
blue by 20.5
58.81.8
40.542.3
Auto12.6
Teleop38.7
End7.5
Second
31.33.2
27.230.5
Auto4.8
Teleop19.2
End7.3
red by 6.5
24.91.8
25.227.0
Auto5.2
Teleop19.5
End0.1
Third
5137
#16
27.43.2
20.723.9
Auto5.6
Teleop20.0
End1.7
red by 5.2
2102
#28
22.21.8
24.226.1
Auto4.5
Teleop16.4
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
32%Auto oddsEarned65%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
42%Barge oddsEarned47%Barge oddsEarned