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Red40
945237.3
98816.1
665817.4
Blue36
1014718.6
364723.4
115910.0
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions63732040801004036

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+9
Teleop+8
Endgame+12
+4Fouls
AutonomousBlue +9
3Leave3
0Coral scored#2
0Coral points9
3Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +1
4Coral scored#3
13Coral points10
1Processor algae#0
0Net algae#2
6Processor points0
0Net points8
6Algae points8
19Total teleop18
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#7
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
16Foul points0
40Total score36

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9452
#17
37.33.7
28.024.4
Auto5.3
Teleop28.1
End4.0
red by 13.9
3647
#41
23.43.0
36.032.9
Auto4.4
Teleop14.7
End4.3
Second
6658
#19
17.43.7
19.015.4
Auto4.2
Teleop10.9
End2.2
blue by 1.2
18.63.0
12.29.1
Auto5.0
Teleop12.9
End0.7
Third
988
#26
16.13.7
10.06.3
Auto4.3
Teleop9.6
End2.1
red by 6.1
1159
#32
10.03.0
15.112.1
Auto3.4
Teleop4.3
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
22%Auto oddsMissed31%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
46%Barge oddsMissed55%Barge oddsMissed