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Red122
196745.1
800616.1
359835.5
Blue96
741319.5
666231.4
247336.3
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions968940608012014016012296

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+26Teleop
+26Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave0
6Coral scored#3
30Coral points16
30Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +12
16Coral scored#12
58Coral points44
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#4
12Processor points6
8Net points16
20Algae points22
78Total teleop66
Reef
8L4#6
6L3#5
4L2#3
4L1 · trough#1
26Game pieces#20
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +26
0Foul points0
122Total score96

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.12.1
37.539.6
Auto9.3
Teleop34.2
End1.6
red by 8.8
2473
#15
36.30.7
38.338.9
Auto5.9
Teleop23.7
End6.7
Second
3598
#23
35.52.1
34.836.8
Auto9.7
Teleop19.3
End6.6
red by 4.1
6662
#26
31.40.7
23.323.9
Auto3.1
Teleop26.8
End1.5
Third
8006
#35
16.12.5
6.59.1
Auto3.5
Teleop10.1
End2.5
blue by 3.4
7413
#32
19.50.7
14.114.7
Auto4.8
Teleop12.6
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned57%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
56%Barge oddsEarned37%Barge oddsEarned