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Red136
696238.2
752820.4
107255.2
Blue106
413526.1
84151.2
914338.9
30%Model gave it70%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8610550150136106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+19Auto
+26Teleop
+26Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +19
9Leave3
7Coral scored#4
35Coral points22
44Total auto25
TeleoperatedRed +7
13Coral scored#15
46Coral points53
2Processor algae#1
6Net algae#4
12Processor points6
24Net points16
36Algae points22
82Total teleop75
Reef
8L4#8
7L3#6
2L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
28Game pieces#24
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
4Foul points0
136Total score106

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.25.9
37.243.0
Auto14.3
Teleop34.3
End6.5
red by 4.0
841
#19
51.20.9
37.037.9
Auto8.9
Teleop35.5
End6.8
Second
6962
#21
38.23.5
21.825.3
Auto9.9
Teleop27.3
End1.0
blue by 0.7
9143
#28
38.90.9
34.835.7
Auto8.3
Teleop29.2
End1.4
Third
7528
#20
20.43.5
20.023.5
Auto5.3
Teleop12.7
End2.4
blue by 5.7
4135
#30
26.10.9
20.321.2
Auto5.7
Teleop18.3
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
38%Auto oddsEarned43%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsEarned8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
22%Barge oddsMissed17%Barge oddsMissed