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Red188
903840.1
186829.2
5940100.5
Blue85
592423.7
758921.0
415941.0
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions159735010020025018885

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+95Teleop
+105Endgame
+103Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
3Leave6
8Coral scored#3
40Coral points13
43Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +71
30Coral scored#13
107Coral points46
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
131Total teleop60
Reef
15L4#7
13L3#5
5L2#2
5L1 · trough#2
43Game pieces#19
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +103
0Foul points2
188Total score85

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
100.53.1
86.089.1
Auto24.9
Teleop65.7
End10.0
red by 59.6
41.00.2
33.433.6
Auto10.4
Teleop28.0
End2.6
Second
9038
#16
40.15.2
29.634.8
Auto12.7
Teleop25.9
End1.5
red by 16.4
5924
#17
23.70.2
14.114.3
Auto4.9
Teleop14.5
End4.3
Third
1868
#20
29.23.8
14.618.4
Auto6.6
Teleop20.0
End2.5
red by 8.1
7589
#33
21.00.2
24.124.2
Auto3.0
Teleop17.0
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
54%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
86%Barge oddsEarned26%Barge oddsMissed