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Red158
603660.6
803367.6
255125.0
Blue152
397057.8
581740.9
543011.9
97%Model gave it3%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15575050100200250158152

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+18Teleop
+6Endgame
+6Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave9
8Coral scored#4
39Coral points18
48Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +3
18Coral scored#23
64Coral points81
4Processor algae#3
5Net algae#3
24Processor points18
20Net points12
44Algae points30
108Total teleop111
Reef
11L4#10
8L3#9
3L2#3
4L1 · trough#5
35Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +12
2Cage & park14
2Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
0Foul points0
158Total score152

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.61.0
61.562.6
Auto20.5
Teleop39.3
End7.8
red by 9.7
3970
#4Sur
57.84.6
24.829.4
Auto13.7
Teleop37.7
End6.4
Second
6036
#5Sur
60.61.0
46.847.9
Auto18.1
Teleop41.5
End1.0
red by 19.7
5817
#22
40.94.6
38.643.2
Auto9.9
Teleop28.3
End2.8
Third
2551
#31
25.01.7
22.724.5
Auto4.1
Teleop18.3
End2.6
red by 13.0
5430
#36
11.97.7
8.215.9
Auto1.2
Teleop8.7
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsEarned45%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
45%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
74%Barge oddsMissed37%Barge oddsEarned