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Red43
572814.6
490425.3
1006412.3
Blue20
88408.6
128014.6
466923.2
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions466402040801001201404320

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+23Teleop
+23Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave6
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +20
5Coral scored#2
18Coral points8
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
28Total teleop8
Reef
3L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
8Game pieces#2
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
0Foul points0
43Total score20

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4904
#14
25.30.1
19.819.9
Auto6.5
Teleop17.0
End1.8
red by 2.1
4669
#25
23.23.5
26.422.9
Auto4.9
Teleop16.2
End2.1
Second
5728
#23Sur
14.60.1
9.810.0
Auto3.1
Teleop10.5
End1.0
Level
1280
#27Sur
14.62.3
8.15.8
Auto3.0
Teleop10.5
End1.1
Third
12.30.1
12.312.4
Auto3.0
Teleop7.7
End1.6
red by 3.7
8840
#37
8.63.5
17.113.6
Auto2.6
Teleop3.0
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
18%Auto oddsMissed23%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsMissed11%Barge oddsMissed