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Red128
1052357.2
570027.8
885911.2
Blue64
1039016.3
1006412.3
650614.8
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions694702040608010012012864

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+66Teleop
+64Endgame
+64Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave6
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points3
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +52
18Coral scored#7
63Coral points25
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
12Processor points6
16Net points8
28Algae points14
91Total teleop39
Reef
11L4#3
4L3#2
3L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
27Game pieces#11
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +64
0Foul points0
128Total score64

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
57.26.3
33.439.7
Auto11.1
Teleop40.6
End5.5
red by 40.8
16.30.2
16.016.2
Auto3.1
Teleop9.2
End4.1
Second
5700
#26
27.83.8
22.426.1
Auto7.1
Teleop18.9
End1.8
red by 13.0
6506
#41
14.80.2
11.511.7
Auto2.9
Teleop9.0
End3.0
Third
8859
#32
11.26.3
0.87.1
Auto2.4
Teleop7.8
End1.0
blue by 1.1
12.30.2
15.615.8
Auto3.0
Teleop7.7
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
27%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
13%Barge oddsEarned28%Barge oddsEarned