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Red135
766731.8
763632.3
603660.6
Blue92
415941.0
255125.0
570027.8
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9192608010012014013592

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+29Teleop
+31Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
0Leave6
6Coral scored#0
30Coral points0
30Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +5
18Coral scored#16
63Coral points56
1Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
6Processor points12
20Net points16
26Algae points28
89Total teleop84
Reef
5L4#4
8L3#6
6L2#4
5L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#22
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +43
12Foul points0
135Total score92

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.62.5
44.346.8
Auto18.1
Teleop41.5
End1.0
red by 19.7
41.00.3
33.233.4
Auto10.4
Teleop28.0
End2.6
Second
32.32.3
14.416.7
Auto6.0
Teleop24.5
End1.7
red by 4.5
5700
#26
27.80.3
21.321.7
Auto7.1
Teleop18.9
End1.8
Third
7667
#15
31.83.8
18.722.5
Auto5.7
Teleop24.4
End1.6
red by 6.8
2551
#31
25.00.4
22.322.7
Auto4.1
Teleop18.3
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
36%Auto oddsEarned49%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
17%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsMissed25%Barge oddsMissed