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Red213
5940100.5
425522.1
1052357.2
Blue157
418624.0
397057.8
803367.6
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions199160100150250213157

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+46Teleop
+56Endgame
+56Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave6
7Coral scored#8
34Coral points38
37Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +53
24Coral scored#14
88Coral points49
3Processor algae#4
10Net algae#5
18Processor points24
40Net points20
58Algae points44
146Total teleop93
Reef
13L4#9
10L3#5
4L2#5
4L1 · trough#3
44Game pieces#31
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +56
6Foul points6
213Total score157

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
100.50.7
99.3100.0
Auto24.9
Teleop65.7
End10.0
red by 33.0
67.60.1
66.766.8
Auto20.5
Teleop39.3
End7.8
Second
57.20.8
55.856.6
Auto11.1
Teleop40.6
End5.5
blue by 0.7
57.80.1
57.057.1
Auto13.7
Teleop37.7
End6.4
Third
4255
#35
22.10.8
20.621.5
Auto5.1
Teleop14.7
End2.4
blue by 1.8
4186
#29
24.00.1
23.023.1
Auto6.0
Teleop15.1
End2.9