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Red60
285426.7
87519.9
388020.7
Blue42
64917.8
499018.9
605914.8
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions806120401001201406042

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+20Teleop
+20Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave6
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points3
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +23
9Coral scored#6
32Coral points21
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
6Processor points6
12Net points0
18Algae points6
50Total teleop27
Reef
4L4#2
2L3#2
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
13Game pieces#8
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +18
0Foul points2
60Total score42

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2854
#12
26.71.1
25.224.0
Auto3.5
Teleop20.6
End2.6
red by 7.8
4990
#21
18.92.2
18.816.6
Auto4.7
Teleop11.9
End2.4
Second
3880
#18
20.70.7
24.824.2
Auto5.7
Teleop13.4
End1.6
red by 2.8
649
#26
17.82.2
22.320.1
Auto5.1
Teleop9.1
End3.6
Third
8751
#32
9.91.1
14.913.8
Auto3.0
Teleop5.4
End1.5
blue by 4.8
6059
#35
14.82.2
12.810.5
Auto3.0
Teleop10.5
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
27%Auto oddsMissed30%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
48%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsMissed