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Red22
669510.7
945239.9
998313.3
Blue50
283927.7
265813.2
1058621.2
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions59613040507080902250

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+24
Endgame+28
Fouls+28
Autonomouslevel
6Leave3
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points3
6Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +24
3Coral scored#8
12Coral points30
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
0Processor points6
4Net points4
4Algae points10
16Total teleop40
Reef
1L4#4
1L3#2
1L2#2
0L1 · trough#1
4Game pieces#11
BargeBlue +4
0Cage & park4
0Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +28
0Foul points0
22Total score50

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9452
#14
39.92.0
41.539.5
Auto6.7
Teleop31.6
End1.5
red by 12.2
2839
#26
27.70.6
30.930.2
Auto2.5
Teleop22.9
End2.2
Second
9983
#18
13.33.3
0.8-2.6
Auto3.1
Teleop7.5
End2.8
blue by 7.9
21.20.7
18.617.9
Auto4.6
Teleop15.1
End1.5
Third
6695
#15
10.72.0
9.87.8
Auto2.7
Teleop6.5
End1.5
blue by 2.5
2658
#31
13.20.6
10.19.4
Auto1.8
Teleop10.6
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsMissed18%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
10%Barge oddsMissed6%Barge oddsMissed