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Red97
997925.9
473864.8
669510.7
Blue11
998229.2
997813.6
95736.9
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions130340501001502002503009711

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+20Auto
+74Teleop
+86Endgame
+86Fouls
AutonomousRed +20
9Leave3
3Coral scored#0
14Coral points0
23Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +54
12Coral scored#1
42Coral points4
2Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
12Processor points0
4Net points0
16Algae points0
58Total teleop4
Reef
5L4#1
4L3#0
4L2#0
2L1 · trough#0
18Game pieces#1
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +86
0Foul points0
97Total score11

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4738
#10
64.80.0
74.574.5
Auto19.0
Teleop37.3
End8.5
red by 35.6
9982
#29
29.22.4
10.37.9
Auto3.6
Teleop17.2
End8.5
Second
9979
#20
25.90.1
10.310.2
Auto4.1
Teleop17.4
End4.5
red by 12.3
9978
#27
13.62.4
10.37.9
Auto2.7
Teleop9.9
End1.1
Third
6695
#15
10.70.0
9.99.8
Auto2.7
Teleop6.5
End1.5
red by 3.8
9573
#35
6.91.4
9.68.1
Auto2.6
Teleop3.1
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned27%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsMissed19%Barge oddsMissed