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Red164
473864.8
998043.5
998313.3
Blue119
945239.9
889133.5
997623.6
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions878920406080100120140160164119

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+35Teleop
+45Endgame
+45Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
0Leave3
8Coral scored#3
40Coral points13
40Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +11
16Coral scored#13
56Coral points45
4Processor algae#4
5Net algae#5
24Processor points24
20Net points20
44Algae points44
100Total teleop89
Reef
8L4#6
8L3#4
4L2#4
4L1 · trough#2
33Game pieces#25
BargeRed +10
24Cage & park14
24Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +45
0Foul points0
164Total score119

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4738
#10
64.85.2
52.157.3
Auto19.0
Teleop37.3
End8.5
red by 24.9
9452
#14
39.92.2
39.141.3
Auto6.7
Teleop31.6
End1.5
Second
43.57.5
29.637.1
Auto9.1
Teleop29.5
End4.9
red by 10.0
8891
#11
33.52.2
30.332.5
Auto4.8
Teleop26.8
End1.9
Third
9983
#18
13.37.5
4.111.6
Auto3.1
Teleop7.5
End2.8
blue by 10.3
9976
#22
23.63.2
16.719.9
Auto4.0
Teleop13.2
End6.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned59%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
11%Barge oddsEarned43%Barge oddsMissed