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Red224
704241.3
622020.8
35996.6
Blue47
347324.8
427627.9
340822.1
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16110105020025022447

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+23Auto
+107Teleop
+125Endgame
+177Fouls
AutonomousRed +23
0Leave3
6Coral scored#1
32Coral points6
32Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +84
15Coral scored#4
54Coral points16
3Processor algae#0
8Net algae#1
18Processor points0
32Net points4
50Algae points4
104Total teleop20
Reef
7L4#2
7L3#1
3L2#1
4L1 · trough#1
32Game pieces#6
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +177
64Foul points12
224Total score47

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
359
#1
96.61.5
81.683.1
Auto20.5
Teleop65.6
End10.6
red by 68.7
4276
#37
27.94.3
38.534.1
Auto6.0
Teleop14.9
End7.0
Second
41.31.5
36.838.3
Auto5.4
Teleop30.3
End5.6
red by 16.5
3473
#28
24.84.3
38.734.4
Auto6.6
Teleop16.0
End2.2
Third
6220
#21
20.81.7
15.617.3
Auto5.4
Teleop11.7
End3.8
blue by 1.2
3408
#34
22.14.3
20.315.9
Auto3.2
Teleop17.2
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
50%Coral oddsEarned13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
93%Barge oddsEarned48%Barge oddsMissed