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Red111
607220.7
113845.6
340822.1
Blue174
420139.4
96817.8
114843.1
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions100112050150200111174

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+35
Endgame+35
Fouls+63
AutonomousBlue +14
6Leave0
1Coral scored#5
3Coral points23
9Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +21
14Coral scored#14
52Coral points49
1Processor algae#3
3Net algae#6
6Processor points18
12Net points24
18Algae points42
70Total teleop91
Reef
6L4#8
3L3#4
4L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
19Game pieces#28
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +63
16Foul points44
111Total score174

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1138
#13
45.60.4
45.945.5
Auto7.6
Teleop28.5
End9.5
red by 2.5
1148
#20
43.11.3
42.744.1
Auto7.6
Teleop29.5
End6.0
Second
3408
#34
22.10.4
21.921.5
Auto3.2
Teleop17.2
End1.6
blue by 17.3
4201
#11
39.41.3
38.539.9
Auto8.5
Teleop24.8
End6.1
Third
6072
#36
20.70.4
21.120.7
Auto2.6
Teleop15.7
End2.4
red by 2.9
968
#40
17.81.3
18.119.5
Auto3.7
Teleop8.9
End5.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsMissed75%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
36%Barge oddsEarned74%Barge oddsEarned