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Red33
186813.3
693411.5
600013.7
Blue64
647923.5
1014721.7
942116.9
28%Model gave it72%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions57692040801003364

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+25
Endgame+27
Fouls+31
AutonomousBlue +6
3Leave3
1Coral scored#2
3Coral points9
6Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +19
3Coral scored#7
11Coral points24
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
0Processor points6
4Net points4
4Algae points10
15Total teleop34
Reef
1L4#3
1L3#3
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#2
5Game pieces#11
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +31
8Foul points12
33Total score64

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6000
#38
13.72.9
12.29.3
Auto5.2
Teleop5.5
End2.9
blue by 9.8
6479
#17
23.51.4
24.322.9
Auto4.9
Teleop15.5
End3.0
Second
1868
#39
13.32.9
24.121.2
Auto6.5
Teleop4.2
End2.6
blue by 8.4
21.70.9
21.220.2
Auto6.2
Teleop15.1
End0.4
Third
6934
#36
11.52.9
14.811.9
Auto4.4
Teleop8.2
End-1.1
blue by 5.5
9421
#10
16.91.4
13.311.9
Auto4.7
Teleop12.9
End-0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
28%Auto oddsMissed54%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsMissed