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Red133
242940.0
325625.5
441472.7
Blue143
1069824.6
977212.7
448178.5
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions125105406080140160180200133143

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+2Teleop
Endgame+8
Fouls+10
AutonomousBlue +4
3Leave0
5Coral scored#6
23Coral points30
26Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +6
18Coral scored#16
65Coral points59
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
12Processor points12
16Net points16
28Algae points28
93Total teleop87
Reef
9L4#7
8L3#9
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#28
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
0Foul points2
133Total score143

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.71.5
60.261.7
Auto15.7
Teleop48.1
End8.8
blue by 5.8
78.53.0
65.768.7
Auto19.7
Teleop49.6
End9.2
Second
2429
#16
40.02.3
31.333.6
Auto5.6
Teleop32.3
End2.2
red by 15.4
24.65.0
17.122.1
Auto4.0
Teleop14.7
End5.9
Third
3256
#19
25.52.3
21.023.3
Auto6.7
Teleop17.6
End1.2
red by 12.8
9772
#11
12.73.3
13.416.8
Auto3.9
Teleop7.1
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned70%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
23%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned41%Barge oddsEarned