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Red20
586911.7
80064.6
676411.2
Blue44
942116.9
40196.0
840419.8
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4061020801001202044

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+28
Endgame+30
Fouls+24
AutonomousBlue +6
0Leave0
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points6
0Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +22
3Coral scored#6
12Coral points22
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#3
0Processor points0
0Net points12
0Algae points12
12Total teleop34
Reef
1L4#3
1L3#2
0L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
3Game pieces#10
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +24
6Foul points0
20Total score44

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5869
#42
11.73.1
14.811.7
Auto1.5
Teleop8.9
End1.2
blue by 8.1
8404
#34
19.81.6
21.419.8
Auto2.7
Teleop13.7
End3.5
Second
6764
#45
11.23.1
14.311.2
Auto2.7
Teleop7.1
End1.5
blue by 5.7
9421
#10
16.91.6
19.417.8
Auto4.7
Teleop12.9
End-0.6
Third
8006
#43
4.63.1
7.74.6
Auto2.3
Teleop1.7
End0.6
blue by 1.3
4019
#30
6.01.6
7.66.0
Auto2.1
Teleop2.6
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
15%Auto oddsMissed24%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
11%Barge oddsEarned18%Barge oddsMissed