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Red179
97173.8
350153.4
58187.0
Blue189
167886.8
940871.8
60488.8
14%Model gave it86%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions223280150200250300350400179189

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+14
Endgame+16
Fouls+10
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave0
8Coral scored#10
42Coral points51
48Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +11
20Coral scored#21
73Coral points74
3Processor algae#4
5Net algae#6
18Processor points24
20Net points24
38Algae points48
111Total teleop122
Reef
13L4#14
7L3#10
4L2#3
4L1 · trough#4
36Game pieces#41
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
6Foul points0
179Total score189

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
581
#14
87.03.3
88.585.2
Auto20.4
Teleop56.8
End9.8
blue by 1.8
604
#7
88.85.3
92.387.0
Auto23.4
Teleop55.6
End9.8
Second
971
#32
73.83.3
77.974.6
Auto15.1
Teleop50.6
End8.1
blue by 13.0
86.85.3
105.6100.3
Auto24.2
Teleop54.1
End8.5
Third
3501
#31
53.43.3
55.852.5
Auto14.5
Teleop35.8
End3.1
blue by 18.3
9408
#17
71.85.3
70.164.9
Auto10.1
Teleop53.7
End8.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
73%Coral oddsMissed97%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
96%Barge oddsEarned96%Barge oddsEarned