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Red178
366378.9
623846.5
944269.5
Blue158
97250.7
803361.0
541951.1
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions216166050100150200250300178158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+42Teleop
+22Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
0Leave6
9Coral scored#2
44Coral points10
44Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +14
23Coral scored#23
82Coral points82
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#5
18Processor points12
28Net points20
46Algae points32
128Total teleop114
Reef
14L4#8
8L3#8
6L2#5
4L1 · trough#4
42Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
0Foul points2
178Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
78.91.0
77.676.6
Auto15.4
Teleop52.6
End10.9
red by 18.0
8033
#37
61.00.5
61.160.6
Auto16.2
Teleop36.8
End8.0
Second
69.51.0
71.370.4
Auto9.4
Teleop60.0
End0.2
red by 18.4
5419
#40
51.10.5
51.751.2
Auto10.3
Teleop33.3
End7.6
Third
6238
#23
46.51.0
43.442.4
Auto9.3
Teleop29.5
End7.7
blue by 4.2
972
#35
50.70.5
51.250.7
Auto11.1
Teleop31.5
End8.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
47%Coral oddsEarned47%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned93%Barge oddsEarned