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Red293
25493.8
291099.9
97250.7
Blue280
945077.5
546875.8
594084.1
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions265256200300350293280

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+30Auto
+15Teleop
+15Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +30
9Leave6
12Coral scored#7
62Coral points35
71Total auto41
TeleoperatedBlue +15
36Coral scored#38
128Coral points135
4Processor algae#6
11Net algae#10
24Processor points36
44Net points40
68Algae points76
196Total teleop211
Reef
21L4#14
10L3#12
11L2#13
6L1 · trough#6
63Game pieces#61
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +13
0Foul points2
293Total score280

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
99.90.0
99.499.4
Auto27.8
Teleop61.9
End10.2
red by 15.8
5940
#11
84.10.3
84.584.1
Auto23.3
Teleop52.1
End8.7
Second
254
#1
93.80.0
93.393.3
Auto22.9
Teleop61.9
End9.0
red by 16.3
77.50.3
77.877.5
Auto17.6
Teleop48.4
End11.5
Third
972
#35
50.70.0
50.250.2
Auto11.1
Teleop31.5
End8.1
blue by 25.1
5468
#25
75.80.3
76.175.8
Auto17.6
Teleop47.9
End10.3