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Red126
313653.0
33918.6
190845.9
Blue143
463835.4
482135.6
40150.8
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions136146100120160180200126143

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+29
Endgame+15
Fouls+17
AutonomousBlue +10
0Leave0
6Coral scored#8
30Coral points40
30Total auto40
TeleoperatedBlue +19
13Coral scored#15
46Coral points53
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#6
12Processor points12
12Net points24
24Algae points36
70Total teleop89
Reef
9L4#8
6L3#6
2L2#5
2L1 · trough#4
24Game pieces#31
BargeRed +14
26Cage & park12
26Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +17
0Foul points2
126Total score143

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3136
#10
53.00.2
51.852.0
Auto13.1
Teleop30.7
End9.2
red by 2.2
401
#9
50.80.6
49.950.5
Auto15.3
Teleop27.7
End7.8
Second
1908
#23
45.90.2
42.943.1
Auto9.9
Teleop29.3
End6.7
red by 10.4
4821
#22
35.60.6
34.935.6
Auto7.8
Teleop22.3
End5.5
Third
339
#48
18.60.2
18.418.6
Auto5.6
Teleop12.0
End1.0
blue by 16.8
4638
#42
35.40.6
34.835.4
Auto9.6
Teleop23.8
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed27%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
75%Barge oddsEarned53%Barge oddsMissed