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Red146
379335.1
1022440.3
236350.0
Blue175
337335.9
859270.6
454142.7
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13916050100200250146175

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+31
Endgame+29
Fouls+29
AutonomousBlue +11
0Leave3
7Coral scored#8
33Coral points41
33Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +20
19Coral scored#19
67Coral points67
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#7
12Processor points12
8Net points28
20Algae points40
87Total teleop107
Reef
6L4#9
10L3#7
5L2#6
5L1 · trough#5
30Game pieces#36
BargeRed +2
26Cage & park24
26Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +29
0Foul points0
146Total score175

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2363
#21
50.01.2
48.850.0
Auto7.6
Teleop33.1
End9.2
blue by 20.6
70.62.0
65.767.7
Auto14.9
Teleop47.7
End7.9
Second
40.31.2
39.040.3
Auto9.3
Teleop25.8
End5.2
blue by 2.5
4541
#27
42.72.0
40.842.7
Auto11.0
Teleop29.4
End2.3
Third
3793
#35
35.11.2
33.935.1
Auto8.9
Teleop23.3
End2.9
blue by 0.8
3373
#33
35.92.0
34.035.9
Auto8.9
Teleop18.5
End8.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
35%Coral oddsEarned25%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
61%Barge oddsEarned95%Barge oddsEarned