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Red134
68643.1
463835.4
1022440.3
Blue124
533849.4
511534.7
53937.2
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions100105050150200250134124

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
Teleop+4
+4Endgame
+10Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
9Leave0
4Coral scored#2
21Coral points12
30Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +22
17Coral scored#16
60Coral points58
1Processor algae#3
2Net algae#5
6Processor points18
8Net points20
14Algae points38
74Total teleop96
Reef
8L4#5
7L3#6
3L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
24Game pieces#26
BargeRed +8
24Cage & park16
24Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +10
6Foul points0
134Total score124

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
686
#11
43.11.8
38.340.1
Auto10.3
Teleop27.1
End5.7
blue by 6.4
5338
#28
49.41.5
44.045.4
Auto8.8
Teleop38.6
End2.1
Second
40.31.8
25.727.5
Auto9.3
Teleop25.8
End5.2
red by 3.1
539
#24
37.21.5
29.931.4
Auto6.4
Teleop28.0
End2.7
Third
4638
#42
35.41.8
28.430.2
Auto9.6
Teleop23.8
End2.0
red by 0.7
5115
#16
34.71.5
19.721.1
Auto6.2
Teleop19.9
End8.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
11%Barge oddsEarned38%Barge oddsEarned