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Red143
219959.3
580456.8
621321.8
Blue115
253436.9
33918.6
210661.4
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10912050150200143115

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+2
+28Teleop
+46Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousBlue +2
0Leave6
6Coral scored#5
31Coral points27
31Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +30
15Coral scored#11
54Coral points40
3Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
18Processor points6
16Net points12
34Algae points18
88Total teleop58
Reef
6L4#5
6L3#4
4L2#4
5L1 · trough#3
28Game pieces#20
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +28
0Foul points18
143Total score115

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2199
#26
59.32.8
45.448.2
Auto10.5
Teleop37.6
End11.2
blue by 2.2
2106
#32
61.40.7
52.151.4
Auto17.8
Teleop36.5
End7.1
Second
56.82.8
43.846.5
Auto12.6
Teleop36.1
End8.1
red by 19.9
2534
#39
36.90.7
40.639.9
Auto10.9
Teleop23.3
End2.7
Third
6213
#50
21.82.8
12.014.8
Auto6.0
Teleop12.9
End2.8
red by 3.2
339
#48
18.60.7
15.414.7
Auto5.6
Teleop12.0
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsMissed93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
69%Barge oddsEarned40%Barge oddsMissed