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Red102
289020.8
335930.6
11650.3
Blue158
1022440.3
621321.8
83659.1
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions82112050100150200102158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+15
Teleop+44
Endgame+56
Fouls+56
AutonomousBlue +15
9Leave0
1Coral scored#5
3Coral points27
12Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +29
15Coral scored#24
54Coral points85
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
6Processor points12
16Net points8
22Algae points20
76Total teleop105
Reef
6L4#9
4L3#7
3L2#7
3L1 · trough#6
21Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +56
0Foul points0
102Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
116
#12
50.31.1
31.132.2
Auto6.1
Teleop35.9
End8.3
blue by 8.9
836
#14
59.13.7
47.851.5
Auto13.6
Teleop39.3
End6.2
Second
3359
#25
30.61.1
24.125.2
Auto4.1
Teleop23.5
End3.0
blue by 9.6
40.33.7
30.233.9
Auto9.3
Teleop25.8
End5.2
Third
2890
#53
20.81.1
18.719.8
Auto4.9
Teleop13.8
End2.2
blue by 0.9
6213
#50
21.83.7
15.319.0
Auto6.0
Teleop12.9
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsEarned66%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
24%Barge oddsEarned46%Barge oddsEarned