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Red94
210661.4
111127.2
34629.9
Blue47
862224.8
379335.1
33918.6
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13272501001502009447

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+39Teleop
+51Endgame
+47Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
9Leave6
4Coral scored#0
21Coral points0
30Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +15
8Coral scored#6
30Coral points23
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
6Processor points6
12Net points4
18Algae points10
48Total teleop33
Reef
6L4#3
2L3#1
3L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#8
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +47
2Foul points6
94Total score47

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2106
#32
61.41.5
53.552.0
Auto17.8
Teleop36.5
End7.1
red by 26.4
3793
#35
35.12.0
33.431.4
Auto8.9
Teleop23.3
End2.9
Second
346
#51
29.91.5
37.736.2
Auto9.5
Teleop20.2
End0.2
red by 5.1
8622
#40
24.82.0
21.519.5
Auto4.9
Teleop18.6
End1.3
Third
1111
#36
27.21.5
23.622.1
Auto6.2
Teleop18.8
End2.3
red by 8.6
339
#48
18.62.0
16.614.5
Auto5.6
Teleop12.0
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
48%Barge oddsEarned12%Barge oddsMissed