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Red129
253436.9
62056.1
12246.6
Blue109
189537.5
190845.9
872630.4
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions159117100150200250129109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+14Teleop
+18Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave3
7Coral scored#4
35Coral points20
44Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +7
15Coral scored#16
53Coral points56
0Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
0Processor points12
16Net points8
16Algae points20
69Total teleop76
Reef
8L4#8
6L3#6
6L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
26Game pieces#24
BargeRed +4
14Cage & park10
14Total endgame10
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
2Foul points0
129Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
620
#19
56.11.0
57.256.2
Auto17.2
Teleop38.6
End0.3
red by 10.2
1908
#23
45.90.0
43.042.9
Auto9.9
Teleop29.3
End6.7
Second
122
#8
46.61.0
47.246.2
Auto9.9
Teleop27.7
End9.0
red by 9.1
1895
#34
37.50.0
37.737.7
Auto7.0
Teleop26.4
End4.2
Third
2534
#39
36.91.0
38.137.1
Auto10.9
Teleop23.3
End2.7
red by 6.4
8726
#54
30.40.0
28.828.8
Auto8.4
Teleop20.9
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
58%Barge oddsEarned42%Barge oddsMissed