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Red156
88860.6
111127.2
862224.8
Blue141
61136.6
188541.7
33918.6
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12811850100150200250156141

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+7Teleop
+7Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
0Leave0
7Coral scored#2
33Coral points12
33Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +14
24Coral scored#21
85Coral points75
3Processor algae#5
3Net algae#6
18Processor points30
12Net points24
30Algae points54
115Total teleop129
Reef
11L4#9
9L3#5
6L2#4
5L1 · trough#5
37Game pieces#34
Bargelevel
0Cage & park0
0Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
8Foul points0
156Total score141

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
888
#15
60.61.0
54.855.7
Auto17.5
Teleop40.5
End2.6
red by 18.8
1885
#20
41.71.0
40.341.3
Auto5.3
Teleop33.8
End2.7
Second
1111
#36
27.21.0
26.227.2
Auto6.2
Teleop18.8
End2.3
blue by 9.4
611
#49
36.61.0
35.936.8
Auto9.3
Teleop27.5
End-0.1
Third
8622
#40
24.81.0
23.924.9
Auto4.9
Teleop18.6
End1.3
red by 6.2
339
#48
18.61.0
17.518.4
Auto5.6
Teleop12.0
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
14%Coral oddsEarned14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed18%Barge oddsMissed