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Red134
624417.7
604553.5
472866.6
Blue165
702868.0
460765.0
42267.1
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1471610100200300400500600134165

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+15
Endgame+25
Fouls+31
AutonomousBlue +11
6Leave3
2Coral scored#5
10Coral points24
16Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +4
22Coral scored#17
78Coral points62
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#8
12Processor points12
12Net points32
24Algae points44
102Total teleop106
Reef
7L4#6
9L3#8
5L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#32
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +31
0Foul points6
134Total score165

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4728
Unranked
66.60.4
59.459.7
Auto10.6
Teleop45.2
End10.8
blue by 1.4
7028
Unranked
68.01.4
64.766.1
Auto11.1
Teleop47.9
End9.0
Second
6045
Unranked
53.50.4
52.953.3
Auto5.0
Teleop46.9
End1.6
blue by 11.5
4607
Unranked
65.01.4
63.364.7
Auto15.1
Teleop42.0
End7.9
Third
6244
Unranked
17.70.4
16.316.7
Auto4.0
Teleop13.6
End0.1
red by 10.6
4226
Unranked
7.11.4
7.38.7
Auto2.0
Teleop2.2
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
63%Auto oddsEarned77%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
25%Coral oddsMissed26%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
60%Barge oddsEarned93%Barge oddsEarned