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Red106
861347.2
959733.6
1001621.1
Blue80
801134.3
700215.2
635313.5
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10751015010680

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+24Teleop
+24Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave3
4Coral scored#3
20Coral points13
26Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +14
11Coral scored#10
40Coral points36
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
12Processor points6
12Net points8
24Algae points14
64Total teleop50
Reef
7L4#3
5L3#6
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
20Game pieces#16
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +26
2Foul points0
106Total score80

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8613
#11
47.20.7
47.247.9
Auto8.6
Teleop32.2
End6.5
red by 12.9
8011
#24
34.31.6
30.932.6
Auto6.6
Teleop20.5
End7.2
Second
9597
#17
33.61.2
26.227.4
Auto6.8
Teleop26.1
End0.7
red by 18.4
7002
#37
15.22.5
12.715.2
Auto3.5
Teleop9.1
End2.6
Third
21.11.1
20.021.1
Auto4.0
Teleop14.2
End2.9
red by 7.6
6353
#32
13.51.6
11.913.5
Auto3.4
Teleop9.0
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
71%Auto oddsEarned47%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsEarned29%Barge oddsEarned