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Red179
1012040.7
544950.3
694150.3
Blue129
461358.5
752250.4
959733.6
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions134133100110120140150160170180179129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+30Teleop
+50Endgame
+50Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
6Leave3
8Coral scored#6
38Coral points30
44Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +19
15Coral scored#17
55Coral points62
3Processor algae#2
9Net algae#4
18Processor points12
36Net points16
54Algae points28
109Total teleop90
Reef
9L4#8
5L3#7
5L2#4
4L1 · trough#4
35Game pieces#29
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +50
0Foul points0
179Total score129

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.31.7
45.046.6
Auto12.0
Teleop32.8
End5.5
blue by 8.2
58.50.0
54.854.8
Auto13.8
Teleop33.4
End11.3
Second
50.31.7
44.946.6
Auto13.3
Teleop28.8
End8.1
blue by 0.2
50.40.0
45.145.2
Auto11.0
Teleop37.7
End1.8
Third
40.71.2
37.038.1
Auto7.3
Teleop29.3
End4.0
red by 7.1
9597
#17
33.60.0
27.927.9
Auto6.8
Teleop26.1
End0.7