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Red78
462436.5
450122.1
294530.3
Blue47
179916.6
182225.4
942742.2
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions78882040601001201407847

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+31Teleop
+33Endgame
+31Fouls
Autonomouslevel
0Leave0
5Coral scored#5
23Coral points23
23Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +31
10Coral scored#5
35Coral points18
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
6Processor points0
12Net points4
18Algae points4
53Total teleop22
Reef
5L4#3
5L3#4
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#2
19Game pieces#11
BargeRed +2
2Cage & park0
2Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +31
0Foul points2
78Total score47

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4624
#19
36.50.9
28.829.8
Auto9.8
Teleop25.6
End1.2
blue by 5.7
9427
#13
42.22.3
44.141.9
Auto13.1
Teleop28.3
End0.8
Second
2945
#21
30.30.6
24.625.1
Auto5.0
Teleop23.6
End1.7
red by 5.0
1822
#43
25.43.8
19.115.3
Auto2.1
Teleop21.6
End1.7
Third
4501
#45
22.10.9
16.117.1
Auto6.8
Teleop14.5
End0.8
red by 5.5
1799
#50
16.63.8
16.012.2
Auto2.5
Teleop13.0
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
28%Auto oddsEarned54%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsMissed32%Barge oddsMissed