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Red72
294530.3
549319.3
105621.7
Blue42
450122.1
66223.0
958523.7
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions68710501001507242

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+14Teleop
+22Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave0
1Coral scored#2
3Coral points9
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +11
7Coral scored#5
26Coral points19
0Processor algae#0
3Net algae#2
0Processor points0
12Net points8
12Algae points8
38Total teleop27
Reef
4L4#2
2L3#2
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
11Game pieces#9
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
8Foul points0
72Total score42

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2945
#21
30.30.2
25.125.3
Auto5.0
Teleop23.6
End1.7
red by 6.6
9585
#49
23.72.0
23.021.0
Auto3.7
Teleop16.7
End3.3
Second
1056
#32
21.70.2
16.516.7
Auto4.1
Teleop13.0
End4.6
blue by 1.3
662
#48
23.02.0
20.218.2
Auto2.5
Teleop16.6
End4.0
Third
5493
#40
19.30.3
19.319.7
Auto4.7
Teleop13.5
End1.1
blue by 2.8
4501
#45
22.12.0
17.115.0
Auto6.8
Teleop14.5
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
41%Auto oddsEarned22%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsEarned18%Barge oddsMissed