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Red139
1033326.2
15929.3
133954.8
Blue76
748526.6
958523.7
634839.5
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9710170809011012013014013976

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+45Teleop
+57Endgame
+63Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave9
1Coral scored#0
7Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +38
20Coral scored#15
73Coral points55
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
18Processor points6
12Net points4
30Algae points10
103Total teleop65
Reef
9L4#7
4L3#3
5L2#4
3L1 · trough#1
27Game pieces#17
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +63
6Foul points0
139Total score76

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1339
#11
54.85.0
42.047.0
Auto10.8
Teleop41.6
End2.4
red by 15.2
6348
#35
39.50.8
36.535.7
Auto5.8
Teleop32.2
End1.5
Second
159
#34
29.35.0
20.825.8
Auto3.1
Teleop18.6
End7.5
red by 2.7
7485
#28
26.61.3
24.923.6
Auto4.8
Teleop19.7
End2.2
Third
26.23.0
19.422.4
Auto2.9
Teleop23.0
End0.3
red by 2.5
9585
#49
23.71.3
21.019.7
Auto3.7
Teleop16.7
End3.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
33%Auto oddsEarned51%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
46%Barge oddsEarned30%Barge oddsMissed