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Red104
182225.4
958627.7
222044.7
Blue154
328443.0
449971.9
429328.5
3%Model gave it97%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions79147050100200104154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
Teleop+40
Endgame+50
Fouls+50
AutonomousBlue +17
6Leave3
2Coral scored#6
10Coral points30
16Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +23
16Coral scored#21
56Coral points77
3Processor algae#2
3Net algae#5
18Processor points12
12Net points20
30Algae points32
86Total teleop109
Reef
9L4#10
4L3#8
3L2#6
2L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +10
2Cage & park12
2Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +50
0Foul points0
104Total score154

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2220
#18
44.70.8
39.840.6
Auto10.0
Teleop33.8
End0.9
blue by 27.2
71.91.2
64.665.8
Auto19.7
Teleop43.4
End8.8
Second
9586
#17
27.71.3
22.523.9
Auto2.5
Teleop23.2
End2.0
blue by 15.4
43.01.2
35.136.3
Auto7.8
Teleop33.2
End2.0
Third
1822
#43
25.41.3
15.316.7
Auto2.1
Teleop21.6
End1.7
blue by 3.1
4293
#27
28.51.2
22.223.4
Auto5.9
Teleop22.3
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
64%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed45%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed49%Barge oddsMissed